From the latest Chechnya Weekly report (Jamestown Foundation), love is in the air for the young Chechen President:

- RAMZAN PROPOSES TO MRS. KENYA

The Daily Telegraph reported on February 28 that during a visit to Chechnya by participants in the 2007 Mrs. World pageant, Chechnya’s acting president, Ramzan Kadyrov, offered Caroline Varkaik, Kenya’s contender in the contest, the opportunity to become one of his wives and, as the British newspaper put it, “sweetened the proposal by presenting her with two horses, two chickens and a goat.” According to the Daily Telegraph, the Kenyan beauty queen looked “briefly surprised” and then “clasped Mr. Kadyrov in a bear hug and promised to return in a year.” The paper added, “Touring Russia ahead of the contest’s finals, to be held in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on March 8, many of the beauty queens on board the charter flight that took them to the neighboring and almost lawless province of Ingushetia, were reportedly unaware of their destination. They were then whisked to Chechnya in a convoy of 15 black Porsches, with armed soldiers positioned every 500 yards along the 30-mile road to protect them from rebel attack.” It is worth noting that Kadyrov has on several occasions spoken in favor of polygamy, but last October denied that he is “trying to introduce polygamy” or force it upon anyone (Chechnya Weekly, October 5, February 2 and 16, January 19, 2006).

Fear is in the air too:

“It’s a beautiful girl who should be praised – for her beauty and her figure. As for fear, if you’re a leader, people should fear you. Why? They should not be afraid of being beaten, but they should fear letting down the people who have given them their trust. This is what one should fear. And as for the personality cult, I found out about it just recently. I paid attention to it only after our handsome General Alu [Alkhanov] started talking about it.” —Acting Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, responding to a question about being the object of praise, fear and a personality cult, during an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s North Caucasus Service published on February 27.

Sean Scallon understands the appeal of Islam and Islamism to certain alienated subgroups on both the far Left and the far Right rather well:

[In the 21st century] growth in Islam will come from Third World immigration of course. But it will also come from white converts as well and they will come from two sources of thought.

Islam always has had an ideological appeal to those on the far left and right. To a cultural Marxist, Islam is the God that hasn’t failed (unlike Communism), at least not yet. Its diverse, multicultural following and the fact that it is the religion of the Third Word i.e. it was founded there and expanded there outside of Europe and the West, makes it a perfect vehicle for cultural upheaval and egalitarianism. Marxism derided religion which limited its appeal while Islam is a religion and has mass appeal. And within an adversarial culture, converting to Islam becomes the perfect vehicle to shock one’s parents and friends and peers. Indeed, Jean-Paul Sartre himself became more and more fascinated with Islam as the communist left declined in his later years. This has more of chance of happening with the nominal baptized or secular Christian than anyone else. Think of John Walker Lindh, the Marin County, California teenager who got fed up with empty secularist lifestyle of parents and neighbors and converted to Islam and joined the Taliban in Afghanistan, and you’ll understand the type. Since 9-11 and since George Bush II give Islam his stamp of approval by calling it a “religion of peace,” there’s been a growing study of Islam within in the media and with others who are curious to know more about it. Such study, no doubt, will increase the size of the pool of converts for Islam within the U.S.

On the other side, Nazis have always appreciated Islam’s marshal spirit and ascetic, non-bourgeois lifestyle along with its ability to submit the will of the mass towards one deity or person. They found it far superior to Christian piety which they found to be nothing more than religion for wimps, not the supermen they were supposed to be. Those who are not inclined towards Nazism still find these same qualities admirable, along with Islam’s male-dominated patriarchy. Women and men do not pray together. If you are a fellow who is unchurched right at the moment because you think the modern church in the U.S. is too female dominated and has no place for you, then Islam may be your scene. Think of [the] guy who used to attend Promise Keeper rallies in football stadiums and spent his time crying on the shoulder of another guy while being told what an awful person he was. When he realized the whole thing was nothing more than a religious version of 1990s male bonding without the tom-tom drums, campfires and war paint and when he realized his wife and her friends were laughing their heads off at him down at the solon, then you’ll know the kind of person I’m talking about. In fact the crisis of the maleless church has become such a concern that, according to religious news reports, that certain pastors have gotten to the point of parking Harley Davidson motorcycles out front of the entryways of their churches and putting on football uniforms and using football metaphors to attract males back into the pews again. But Islam’s call may be more enticing than that just more passing Christian fads.

Examples are fun, so here’s a couple more.

The alliance between Hezbollah (and Iran) and the far Left in Lebanon and around the world is a great example of the first trend described above.

A “story” (read: propaganda piece) in the Montreal Gazette, Dec 10th, by Maria Abi-Habib:

Ibtisam Jamaleddine stood in the room of her dead son, Maxim. Maxim was 18 years old when he was mistaken for a fighter and killed by an Israeli missile during this summer’s war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Pictures of Che Guevara and soccer players as well as a plaque dedicated to Shiite Islam’s most revered imam, Ali, adorn the walls of his room. They tell a story unknown in the West, of the complex nature of forces that fought Israel last summer.

During the war, U.S. President George W. Bush pitted the conflict as one fuelled by “Islamo-fascism,” pushed by Hezbollah, the Party of God. But fighting alongside Hezbollah was an older, more seasoned resistance movement – the Lebanese Communist Party, which allied with the Islamic party for the first time and showed its members that Islam and communism can complement each other.

For Maxim’s mother, the alliance of these two ideologies was natural and the pictures in her son’s room of a communist martyr and a Muslim hero attest to that.

She said her son wasn’t religious. She said she sees her son as part of a line of resistance fighters “that began with Imam Ali and went to Che and then to Maxim. It’s one lineage of struggle.”

The nature of forces and alliances in Lebanon may be complex, but this is hardly an example of that complexity. Communism and Islamism in bed together makes perfect sense, as both are totalitarian fantasies of a utopia, which, at every attempt at implementation turns into its hellish opposite. (Isn’t it hilarious when Muslims counter real-world examples of the failings of Islam by saying the examples don’t apply to “true” Islam because “there is currently no ‘true’ Islamic state in existance”? Gee, I wonder why?) Neither is the above alliance happening “for the first time”. Hezbollah and Lebanese Communist Party members have been running on voting tickets together in Lebanese elections ever since Hezbollah was forced to change its image from sectarian terrorist militia to a political party of “resistance” at the end of the civil war in the early nineties.

Here’s a couple of recent happy snaps of the happy couple:

“Supporters of the Lebanese Communist Party wave a party flag last Sunday during a peaceful sit-in organized by Hezbollah in Beirut.” according to the Montreal Gazette

Dec 2006, Hezbollocks-led protest in Beirut – A drop of Red in a sea of Yellow and Orange.

And if you think that a portrait of Che Guevara on the wall next to an Islamic one is an anomaly, think again:

Prime Minister of Chechnya is not a man to be messed with, especially if you work for him.

At the age of just 30, Ramzan Kadyrov counts the Russian President Vladimir Putin as a close ally, wields enormous power in his war-ravaged world-infamous republic, and is the object of a Stalin-style personality cult.

[..] He has advocated polygamy, banned gambling, and clamped down on the sale of alcohol – all policies that would cause a riot if implemented elsewhere in Russia.

[..]Inside, Kadyrov’s office resembles the boardroom of a multinational corporation, albeit with a few significant differences. The federal Russian flag stands alongside the green flag of the Chechen republic, and from one wall, a framed black-and-white picture of Che Guevara stares down. Kadyrov clearly identifies with the Argentine who made his name in Cuba, since his fan club (yes, he does have a fan club) often waves aloft stencilled posters of the Chechen leader wearing Che’s beret and adopting the same uncompromising stare.

[..]A colourful portrait of a woman wearing a headscarf adorns another wall, presumably Kadyrov’s mother, and I notice at least two likenesses of his benefactor, Vladimir Putin.

Through the window, the green-topped minaret of a newly built mosque reaches up into the gloomy Grozny sky, a reminder that Kadyrov has styled himself as a devout Muslim and adopted elements of shariah for his regime.

Yep, you read correctly, a chunk of Russia is now partially implementing Sharia Law. But don’t get too carried away with that one – this is an elaborate and cynical exercise in sock-puppetry, not a naive subjugation to a creeping Islamification. This is Russia, not Sweden, and the Russia Empire has centuries of experience with “self-governing” Muslim populations within its borders. More importantly it has several centuries experience of being governed by Muslims – an experience permanantly etched into the national psyche and untempered by Western political correctness and one Russia will not be repeating any time soon (“scratch a Russian and you will find a Tartar”, goes a Russian proverb). And by soon I mean ever. I had a post on Islam and demographics in Russia in the works that I am thinking of posting in several smaller posts, largely in response to the “Russia is turning Muslim” silliness that swept the blogosphere recently. Chechnya is only a very small part of Russia, the Muslims of the North Caucasus are a very different breed to say the Tartars, who make up the biggest Muslim segment in Russia, and the whole Islamification-of-Russia line is a misfire. But I digress.

Now a quick look at the other end of the spectrum – the far right and Islamism. Its not called Islamo-Fascism for nothing, and if you need proof, look up the collaboration of Bosnian Muslims with the Nazis in World War 2. Look up the relationship between the Mufti of Jerusalem and Hitler. Look up the list of speakers at the recent Holocaust conference in Iran.

I’ll throw in just one more example though, that relates directly to the “Promise Keeper rally enthusiast” types Scallon is talking about:

Turning Muslim in Texas

Praying in Texas
George W Bush may be backed by Christian fundamentalists but in his home state of Texas, Islam is the latest big draw. The Bible belt is transferring its allegiance to the Qur’an because, for many erstwhile Christians, believe it or not, the church is too liberal.

Eric was a Baptist preacher before he became a Muslim 14 years ago. Now he prays five times a day – even in the middle of watching a football game. His wife, Karen, also a convert, is covered from head to toe in the traditional Muslim burka. Islam, says Eric, ‘is everything I wanted Christianity to be’.

The Bible belt is not about to turn into the Our’an belt, any more than Russia is about to turn into Russiastan, so don’t take the “transferring its allegiance” baloney above too seriously. But do check out the video for the comedy. You can watch the full 24-minute documentary, “Turning Muslim in Texas”, on Google Video. Here it is:

See also my previous posts on Islam’s useful idiots on the Left.

“Problem principle” blowback:

[..] Alexander Litvinenko, a fierce critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, died Thursday of heart failure after falling gravely ill from what doctors said was poisoning by a rare radioactive substance.

Tests by forensic toxicologists found radioactive polonium-210 in Litvinenko’s urine, Britain’s Health Protection Agency announced Friday. Agency officials said discovery of the element in a poisoning case was “an unprecedented event.”

[..] Litvinenko spoke to academics James Heartfield and Julia Svetlichnaja from the University of Westminster in three interviews that lasted a total of about six hours in April and May. The Daily Telegraph published a syndicated version of the interviews Saturday.

Litvinenko was recruited into the Soviet-era KGB and also worked for its successor, the Federal Security Service, or FSB. He was later promoted to a specialist counterterrorism and organized crime unit. After the fall of communism, he said his directive was to recruit powerful businessmen who could stimulate an economic boom, and to hire assassins.

“So if somebody was the victim of a crime — like his daughter was raped — you would offer to let them take revenge on the perpetrator,” Litvinenko was quoted as saying. “This was how we recruited killers.”

[..] In the interviews, Litvinenko said that as a favor to a senior former colleague who was in debt to moneylenders from the Caucasus, he was told to arrest the creditors and execute them.

“Our department worked on the so-called problem principle — the government had a problem and we had simply to deal with it,” he said.

He said he was ordered to kill Mikhail Trepashkin, another security officer who had spoken about the FSB’s activities. He said he was also told to kidnap a prominent Chechen businessman based in Moscow to trade for Russian intelligence officers taken hostage by Chechens.

By 1997, Litvinenko said his department had become “responsible for illegal punishments or so-called extralegal executions of unsuitable businessmen, politicians and other public figures. In parallel, the department blackmailed the same targets for funds.”

[..] Government opponents were “illegally killed — not court executed” in Russian streets or forests by the agency, Litvinenko said, speaking in English.

In 1998, Litvinenko publicly accused his superiors of ordering him to kill Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky, who was living in exile in London. He spent nine months in jail on charges of abuse of office, then was acquitted and moved to Britain, which granted him asylum in 2000.

[..] In Moscow, the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta made a series of allegations Saturday about the killing, pointing suspicion at London’s Russian exile community. It portrayed Litvinenko as a violent and unintelligent pawn who “made his choice and drank his poison … when he betrayed those he worked for.”

The newspaper speculated Berezovsky was involved, aiming either to use the death to discredit Putin’s government or settle a business dispute. A presenter on Russia’s state-run Channel One television channel said there was “a theory Litvinenko poisoned himself.”

He went to the trouble of acquiring Polonium just to poison himself in a cafe and die of radiation poisoning? Why didn’t he just overdose on nutmeg or tie himself up and feed himself to ravenous goldfish?

Meanwhile, ZZ Top inspired Jihad Monkeys at KavkazCenter.com (thank you Google News!) quote Anti-Zionist conspiracy wackos from the loonasphere… who quote flakey Zionist “intelligence” site: “Dead Russian Spy was israeli Double Agent”:

Sure as heck puts israeli relations with Russia in a whole new different light.

Enlighten me, oh Illumined ones, what “whole new different light” would that be? Other than the one shining out of your anus?

Meanwhile The Sunshine Band at KC have been doing a little sleuthing of their own and found the smoking/radiating gun in.. China!

The Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko, a former Soviet spy currently in intensive care in London after being poisoned with thallium, was granted asylum in the United Kingdom in 2001. A few months later he released his book “Blowing up Russia : Terror from Within”:

In this book Litvinenko alleged that the FSB was responsible for the apartment block bombings in Russia that were blamed on Chechens and became the pretext for the second Chechen War. I have not read the book myself, although it has been sitting in my Amazon Wish List for a couple of years now, but the reviews and the cover suggest the book’s thesis is that the FSB used acts of terror, abduction and contract killings to influence public opinion in Russia, using fear and nationalism to steer the country under authoritarian rule. The book has just shot to the top of my reading list.

(h/t Noisy Room)

An update to my post yesterday on the Caucasus and what opportunities may present themselves there for the West in dealing with Iran:

We’ve got progress on point 3 (see last paragraph of yesterday’s post). Looks like Russia has been offered WTO membership in return for cooperation on Iran. Pavel Felgenhauer writing for the Jamestown Foundation yesterday:

There is considerable speculation in Moscow on what specific political deal managed to break the WTO stalemate, some as bizarre as Moscow agreeing not to recognize South Ossetian independence in return. There may be multiple reasons for the sudden change of heart in the Bush administration, other than progress on fighting piracy and better tariffs. Simply having Russia inside the WTO and abiding by its rules may be in everybody’s interest. However, there is another issue that currently dominates U.S.-Russian relations — Iran.

Yesterday, November 14, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced at a press conference in Tehran plans to build 60,000 gas centrifuges to enrich uranium. The UN yesterday accused Iran, Syria, and several other countries of smuggling weapons into Somalia to arm Islamic militants of the Islamic Courts Union. The same report accuses Iran of seeking to swap weapons for uranium in Somalia. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has prepared yet another report that accuses Iran of continuing secret nuclear activities.

[..] Iran has only minute deposits of natural uranium. Last September Moscow agreed to supply some 100 tons of nuclear fuel uranium for Bushehr by March 2007. If Iran diverts only a small percentage of this already substantial amount of enriched uranium into its gas centrifuge complex, nothing short of military action may stop it going nuclear in a year or two.

Is the sudden WTO deal a sign that Washington and Moscow may still reach an agreement on Iran?

[..] Putin has said that it is counterproductive to corner Iran. However, Russia does not want a neighbor that has territorial claims in the Caspian Sea to go nuclear. Putin plans a short summit with Bush in a Moscow airport during a refueling stopover, and then both go to the summit in Hanoi. Putin clearly wants to hear what — if anything — Bush may offer on top of the WTO agreement and compare it with Ahmadinejad’s bid.

Then Stratfor picked up the ball today (subscribers only):

Bush certainly has an incentive, then, to talk to Putin about butting out of the U.S.-Iran dialogue. He might not even be asking Russia to stop being friendly with Tehran — which would be unrealistic anyway — so much as asking it not to make things more difficult for the United States on this particular issue. To encourage such cooperation, the Bush administration stood down from 13 years of conflict and offered Russia a way into the WTO. The implied threat remains, of course, that Washington could scupper the deal if Russia does not play ball on Iran.

It would not be the first time the two have engaged in political horse-trading. Russian support of the UNSC resolution condemning North Korea’s nuclear tests likely came in exchange for U.S. support on a resolution condemning Georgian occupation of Abkhazia’s Kodori Gorge. Iran and the WTO are issues of greater magnitude, however.

Putin is currently in a strong position vis-ˆ-vis Bush, whose Republican Party lost the midterm congressional elections and who sorely needs a success in the Middle East. Russia prioritizes the political over the economic, and if its relationship with Iran or its accession agreement to the WTO impede its goals, it is just as likely to withdraw. The United States has that option as well — at least on the WTO front — but it needs to come to some kind of understanding with Tehran. Bush might be hoping that a high-level tete-a-tete with Putin will seal the deal on Iran, just as the WTO deal is being sealed at the top level. The details can come later.

The Caucasus is a region where the memory of war is all too recent and its horrors all too familiar, yet despite that its return is seemingly all but inevitable again. For centuries located at the meeting point of three empires – the Russian/Soviet, the Iranian/Persian and the Turkish/Ottoman, the Caucasus been a battle ground where these empires fought each other and fought to subdue the ethnic Caucasian nations and tribes, while the Caucasians fought each other. The temporary stability enforced by the Soviet Union evaporated with it and the 90s saw a number of conflicts ignite or reignite in the region. As recently as a year or two ago it seemed that the Caucasus was again heading for a lasting stability, besides the ongoing, although hushed up, Chechen insurgency that is, as Westerm influence grew in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and Russia itself was still keeping up some appearance of embracing Western style democracy.

How much things have changed in a year.

Another war in the Caucasus is on the way. And not necessarily in the shape that a scan of current news headlines may bring to mind.

Russia reloads.

By default the suspicion for any destabilisation of the region first falls on Russia, the “re-emerging empire”, as the Georgian President Sakashvilli recently referred to it. So far its “re-emergence” has mostly been by non-military means, ie via its all but official foreign policy of energy blackmail. Re-enabling it’s military options however is evidently on the minds of Moscow’s policy makers too. Russia has increased its national defence budget from 140 billion rubles ($5.2 billion) in 2001, to 870 billion rubles ($32.4 billion) in 2007. Thats an increase of more than 6 times. What these numbers translate to in terms of strategic capabilities is of course another matter – how this money is spent is shrouded in secrecy, as tends to be the case in authoritarian regimes, and budget secrecy has the downside of massive built in inefficiency. (In light of which perhaps Putin should rethink his personal motto of “Get rich and keep quiet”. What is that about?) The Russian military consists of between 1.3 and 4 million people, depending on how you define “military” – an area where the Russians like to get creative, depending on the impression they seek to project – which suggests an expensive luxury.

Said Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov last month:

“When I came to the Defense Ministry, its budget was some 140 billion rubles. This was in 2001. The figure that has almost been agreed upon for 2007 is about 870 billion rubles. As they say, compare and feel the difference”

Georgian overconfidence.

One Caucasian nation that could really be “feeling the difference” is of course Georgia, incidentally the fastest-arming country in the world, which has two regions attempting to secede and join Russia – Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia is making a nice profit from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that went online in June, and is expected to produce about 1.5% of its national income. Much like increased oil revenue has allowed the Russians its military spending indulgences, Georgia has been using its newly acquired funds (recently offset by the Russian blockade) for a massive beefing up of its military, Jane’s reports:

Under Minister of Defence Irakli Okruashvili, Georgian militarisation is proceeding apace. Spending has risen from less than USD25 million in 2002 to an exceptional USD337 million in 2006; from 0.7 to 5 per cent of GDP. Maximum force strength has been increased and an army reserve of 100,000 trained civilians is being created. Significant stocks of armoured vehicles, artillery and attack helicopters have been procured. A major ‘NATO-standard’ base has been constructed close to Abkhazia and another is underway near South Ossetia.

It now seems that it is Georgia that has overplayed its hand with its recent posturing over the Russian spy scandal, while attempting to draw international attention to Russian encouragement of its separatist regions. Not only have the Russians come down hard on Georgia, international condemnation has also been falling on the Georgians for initially escalating the affair. Counting on Western support President Mikhail Saakashvili may be preparing for an attempt to regain control of the break away regions by force. The Russians on the other hand are drawing attention to the various new nations whose separatist movements the West has encouraged – most recently Montenegro, and most importantly in the near future, Kosovo – as examples of Western self-serving hypocrisy.

Burning for vengeance in the Land of Eternal Fire.

But of course the possibility of confict between Georgia and Russia is a surprise to noone right now. In fact there is another conflict in the Caucasus which seems far more certain.

Also benefitting nicely from the BTC pipeline, but lacking the media attention, is Georgia’s neighbour, Azerbaijan, the economy of which is expected to grow 18% as a result of the pipeline. Like Georgia it is spending much of its profits on arming itself. On October 18th Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan’s defense expenditures will rise to $1 billion in 2007. Thats compared to $300 million in 2005. The Azeris fought a war with Armenia after the parliament of its Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has an Armenian majority, voted to join Armenia back in 1988. The first Nagorno-Karabakh War ended in 1994, claiming about 35,000 lives. In that conflict Armenia’s military proved superior. Now Azerbaijan is getting busy attempting to correct its disatvantage. Armenia on the other hand, which has no oil to sell, had a defence budget of $160 million this year and their entire national budget in 2005 was $930.7 million, which is less than next year’s defence budget alone for the Azeris. The status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region remains disputed, with no country officially recognising its independence. Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at a stand off, technically still at war, however the regions outskirts are currently a site of daily skirmishes and sniper attacks which, together with landmines claim about a 100 lives a year. 2006 was seen as a window of opportunity for resolving the conflict with diplomacy, as neither nation had an election this year. The window is fast closing. Some progress has been made in negotiating the return of areas that Armenia occupied during the last war that were strategically important for the defence of Nagorno-Karabakh. But the real source of their disagreements – the status of Nagorno-Karabakh itself – is no closer to resolution than it was a decade ago.

An incident that reflects the depths of the animosity between the two nations occured in Budapest, Hungary, in 2004 at a training seminar which was part of the Partnership for Peace NATO-sponsored program. One early morning an Azerbaijani officer, Ramil Safarov, came into the bedroom where the Armenian Lieutenant Gurgen Markaryan was sleeping and hacked him to death with an axe. In response to the incident the human rights commissioner of Azerbaijan, Elmira Suleymanova, stated that “Safarov must become an example of patriotism for the Azerbaijani youth.” An Azeri political scientist, Zardusht Alizade, is also quoted as saying that Safarov “will be raised to the status of a national hero”. And Farida Askerova, Chairwoman of the Organization for the Liberation of Karabakh women’s board: “The young people ought to be ready for the holy war; every mother must raise a son to fight for the Motherland”.

And in February of this year, the following from Iskander Gamidov of the opposition National Democratic Party of Azerbaijan:

“Maybe in a month, maybe in a year or two, but sooner or later war will be inevitable. We should prepare for it and prepare society,” This was said a roundtable meeting titled ‘Prospects for the Karabakh settlement by military means’.

In a recent development Arkady Gukasian, the President of Nagorno-Karabakh signed a decree on November 3rd to hold a referendum Dec. 10 regarding the draft of the Nagorno-Karabakh Constitution.

The big question is who the major regional and world powers will back in the conflict. The US is likely to do everything in its power to prevent a war. Firstly there are more Armenians in the US than in Armenia, making for a powerful lobby. Secondly the US has growing economic interests in Azerbaijan, due to energy investments. Azerbaijan has been growing into a regional energy hub, both as a source of oil and a post of transit from Caspian oil and gas from Central Asia. In addition Azerbijian is a potential, although reluctant ally against Iran. Also there are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbijian, 17 million or 24% of Iran’s population in fact, something Iran is uneasy about. In any case Iran has been developing its ties with Armenia, in part to counter Turkish influence in Azerbaijan and in part to keep a lever against Baku. There is little scope for the US to take sides in any confict here – it wants the region stable. As does the EU, which is looking to diversify its energy sources away from Russia. If absolutely forced however the US would have to side with the Azeris. But Azeribaijan’s closest ally and firmest backer is Turkey, with many Azeri officers currently studying there. A Turkish trained and advised army fighting against Armenia adds another grim dimension to the developments (the official position of the Azeri government on the Armenian genocide, by the way, is one of outright denial). Moscow, although not hostile to Azerbaijan per se, is closely allied, through the CSTO, with Armenia, where it is has been aggressively buying up infrastructure and has as its ultimate goal control of the whole Caucasus.

An overcrowded chessboard.

And this is far from the end of the the smoldering problems in the Caucasus. The trouble for the Russians is far from over in Chechnya and is perhaps only starting in surrounding regions like Dagestan, North Ossetia and Ingushetia, no matter how hard Moscow likes to pretend it has the situation there under control. And the trouble hasn’t even started yet for the various foreign companies that have been investing in Caspian oil and gas and building pipelines across the Caucasus going through to the Black Sea and Turkey. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) pipeline is the only pipeline on Russian soil that is not owned and controlled by the Russians – something Moscow is intent on remedying. They are also far from happy about any pipes taking energy resources out of Central Asia via any other route they don’t control, ie across Russian territory. As American influence has weakened in the region the Russians are growing bolder in enforcing their desires on their neighbours – and energy has been been their favored lever to push. The BTC pipeline, which passes through Azerbaijan and Georgia (avoiding CSTO member Armenia) into Turkey, drags a host of Western interests directly into the line of Russian ire, although that was part of the reason it was installed in the first place – Western economic involvement, and thus influence, in the region was one of the objectives, not a side effect. In reality should war break out the de facto over-involvement may morph into a liability. Kazakhstan also has a significant stake on oil sent through the BTC and another pipeline in a similar direction is likely in a couple of years for their massive Kashagan field in the north of the Caspian Sea. And lets not forget the Iranians. It was only in the 19th century that parts of the Caucasus, particularly in what is now Azerbaijan, were part of their empire, before the Czarist Russia made it a part of theirs. Iranian influence amongst the Shia of Azerbaijan has been increasing, as it has among all the Shia populations in the Middle East. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has recently spoken out in support of the Iranians’ right to nuclear power development. At the same time Armenia’s relationship with Iran has also been warming. Armenia is reliant on Russia and Iran for its energy and has Russian military bases on its territory. As already mentioned, it is a member of the Russian led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Implications and opportunities for the West.

Should another war over Nagorno-Karabagh prove imminent a number of opportunities may present themselves to the West in dealing its current problem numero uno, Iran:

1. Challenging the perception in the Muslim world that Iran is the new champion of Islam by hammering the fact that it is supporting (Christian) Armenia against (mostly Shia) Muslim Azerbaijan, thus shattering the image Tehran is trying to create as the global champion of Islam against the Zionist and Christian Crusaders. Actually Azerbaijan was briefly the world’s first Muslim republic between 1918 and 1920, before the Soviets took control, seeking access to Baku’s oil. Ironically Armenia claims to be the world’s first Christian state. Azerbaijan is a perfect candidate for a Western ally in the Muslim world. It remains largely secular, unafflicted by extremism (except a small but growing Salafist movement amongst Sunnis near the Dagestan border) and is even a prime example of religious tolerance. Baku has the largest Jewish synagogue in Europe, built there in 2003 and unlike Iran, Azerbaijan is proud of its Zoroastrian roots – the name Azerbaijan means Land of The Eternal Fire, a place where Zoroastrian fire temples flourished for thousands of years. In fact their main holiday is Novruz, from the Zoroastrian tradition.

2. Fermenting unrest in Northern Iran by turning the focus of Azeri nationalism towards South Azerbaijan – otherwise known is northwestern Iran. As much as the US wants the Caucasus stable (and Caspian oil flowing westward) if that is not achievable than the it is in its interest to have Iran destabilised and the Iranians know it. A possibility to explore is the brokering of a deal which would allow Nagorno-Karabagh independence in return for full US support for Azeri interests in Iran, perhaps even floating the idea of the formation of a Greater Azerbaijan. Iran should be as worried about the Azeri state as Turkey is about an independent Kurdistan. If the answer to Iraq is Tehran, could this be an opportunity to give them a riddle of their own?
The situation in Georgia is another reason for the Azebaijan to seek closer ties with the US – Russia is ultimately seeking regime change in Tbilisi. Should Georgia turn into a Russian outpost, like Armenia, it will next turn its focus on Azerbaijan, which would then be effectively cut off from the West. And Nagorno Karabakh would give it the perfect pretext to do so aggresively. Baku has been careful not to appear to be too close to any of the three courting powers. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has stated for example that Azerbaijan would never become a staging ground for a US attack on Iran, despite rumours to the contrary and current negotiations with the US about renovating an Azeri air base as a refueling station for NATO planes traveling to Afghanistan. He also declined a invitation from Moscow to join a Russian led “counterterrorism” navy group on the Caspian, CASFOR, but did stop by Moscow last week for a chat with Putin ahead of Azerbaijan’s upcoming negotiations with Gazprom, straight after visitting Brussels and signing an energy agreement with the European Union. And the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met Aliyev in Baku on May 4th with the Iranians even announcing they are studying the possibility of transporting Iranian oil via the BTC pipeline. But Baku’s oil wealth is pegged to Western interests. Although fear of Iranian wrath from the south is a strong motivator in Baku, the Azeris know most of their prospects for growth lie eastward, with their friends in Turkey, in the EU, which is keen for Azeri gas, even in Israel, which gets 20% of its oil from Azerbaijan. This understanding should be further reinforced should Moscow’s stance towards Baku grow pushy or threatening.

3. Driving a wedge between Russia and Iran. Both are none too happy about Caspian oil flowing westward to Turkey, via Azerbaijan and Georgia, rather than north through Russia or south through Iran. Their clash of both economic and political interests here can be exploited. There is also a conflict of interest in Armenia. For example when the Iranians built a gas pipeline through Armenia Moscow demanded its diameter be limited to 700 millimeters, instead of the 1,420 millimeters in the original design, precluding the possibility of Iranian gas transitting to Georgia (or further to the Ukraine) via that line. Armenia promptly agreed. Russian state gas monopoly Gazprom pretty much owns Armenia’s gas distribution system. Another possible point of contention is Iran’s recent agreement with Georgia to supply it with energy. The EU is considering Iran as an option towards diversification away from overdependence on Russian gas. Yet another sign of possible tensions between Russia and Iran is the postponement last week of the Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Moscow, reportedly because of Iranian annoyance that the Russians said they may postpone the construction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor. Yet despite all these conflicts of interest Moscow and Tehran appear tentatively in the process of becoming energy partners – a partnership in which Russia will no doubt come out dominant. Russia partners with Iran to counterbalance Western influence in their respective peripheries and because Iran keeps the US busy while Russia pursues its own political goals unhindered.

Currently there is talk in the US of making deals with Iran over Iraq. But Iran no longer backed by Russia would lose much of its clout so the saner option of negotiating with Russia should be explored. Besides support for Nagorno Karabkh and assurance of keeping Tehran’s influence out of the Caucasus and Central Asia perhaps Russian involvement in the development of the Kashagan oil field, estimated to be the world’s fourth largest, in the north of the Caspian Sea could be placed on the table.

Also see update, 11/16/06.