To start with here’s Daniel Pipes laying out the reasons exactly why I do these opinion roundups every week. NY Sun, Oct 17th “Op-eds now more central in war than bullets“
With loyalties now in play, wars are decided more on the Op Ed pages and less on the battlefield. Good arguments, eloquent rhetoric, subtle spin-doctoring, and strong poll numbers count more than taking a hill or crossing a river. Solidarity, morale, loyalty, and understanding are the new steel, rubber, oil, and ammunition. Opinion leaders are the new flag and general officers. Therefore, as I wrote in August, Western governments “need to see public relations as part of their strategy.”
Even in a case like the Iranian regime’s acquisition of atomic weaponry, Western public opinion is the key, not its arsenal. If united, Europeans and Americans will likely dissuade Iranians from going ahead with nuclear weapons. If disunited, Iranians will be emboldened to plunge ahead.
[..] Non-Western strategists recognize the primacy of politics and focus on it. A string of triumphs – Algeria in 1962, Vietnam in 1975, and Afghanistan in 1989 – all relied on eroding political will. Al-Qaeda’s number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, codified this idea in a letter in July 2005, observing that more than half of the Islamists’ battle “is taking place in the battlefield of the media.”
Clifford D. May in the National Review on a similar theme, Oct 20th: “A Different War”
Has there ever before been a war in which journalists have given such a gift to their country’s enemies?
But this war is different. In this war, bullets and bombs are used at least as much to send messages as to kill and maim. And the media are for manipulating. One side makes full use of these changes. American political leaders seem not yet to fully comprehend what they are up against; much less have they begun to respond effectively
This editorial was published in the NY Times on Monday 17th of October, in the subscription only section. It was reproduced in full in Lebanon’s Daily Star a couple of days later, no doubt providing much entertainment to the anti-Western brigade, and much encouragement to the Islamists. It brings up an extremely important point. Know your enemy. (via Douglas Farah at the Counterterrorism Blog)
Jeff Stein: “Can Washington’s counter-terror officials tell a Sunni from a Shiite?”
For the past several months, I’ve been wrapping up lengthy interviews with Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: “Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?”
A “gotcha” question? Perhaps. But if knowing your enemy is the most basic rule of war, I don’t think it’s out of bounds. And as I quickly explain to my subjects, I’m not looking for theological explanations, just the basics: Who’s on what side today, and what does each want?
[.. ]But so far, most American officials I’ve interviewed don’t have a clue. That includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but also members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy agencies. How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics?
Read it all. Unbelievable.
Herbert I. London and Robert McMarthy originally in the Washington Post, Oct 20: “In Defence of Liberty”
It is a sad reality that radicalism is actually mainstream in much of the Islamic world. This is due primarily to the refusal of many Muslims not just Muslim terrorists but millions of Muslims to accept the cardinal principles of enlightened liberty and democracy.
One need not merely infer this. Explicit proof is abundant in both Sunni and Shi’ite Islam. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s highest Shi’ite authority and recipient of high praise by administration officials maintains that non-Muslims should be considered in the same category as “urine, feces, semen, dead bodies, blood, dogs, pigs, alcoholic liquors,” and “the sweat of an animal who persistently eats [unclean things].” Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University in Egypt, the highest Sunni authority, instructs that Jews are “enemies of Allah [and] descendants of apes and pigs,” views he expressly attributes to the Koran.
This dehumanizing hatred has been turned against our nation. Mustafa Zakri, a member of parliament in Egypt (the recipient of $2 billion a year in U.S. largess), has asserted that “America is the head of the serpent, and the greatest enemy, which we must confront.” In Yemen, a judge recently dismissed charges against 19 terrorists who joined with al Qaeda in fighting U.S. forces in Iraq, reasoning that Islamic law sanctions jihad against occupiers of Muslim lands.
In newly liberated Afghanistan, the government attempted to put a man to death for the “crime” of converting from Islam to another religion, a capital offense under Islamic law. In Iraq, homosexuals are executed in Shi’ite-controlled areas consistent with a fatwa from the Ayatollah al-Sistani.
Meanwhile, Iran, nearing a confrontation with the West over its nuclear program, has developed a missile called “Zelzad 1.” Its namesake is a Koranic verse that tells of a conflagration which precipitates Judgment Day. The missile is emblazoned with the slogan: “We will trample America under our feet. Death to America.”
Michael Freund in the Jerusalem Post, Oct 18: “Right On: The coming Middle East war”
he warning signs are everywhere, yet no one wishes to see them. Israel’s foes are gearing up for war, and it’s time that we opened our eyes to the danger that confronts us.
The conflict may be just weeks or even months away, or perhaps a bit longer. How it will start is anyone’s guess, but make no mistake, a major outbreak of hostilities is almost certainly around the corner.
If this sounds like scare-mongering or even an advanced case of paranoia to you, just take a glance at the newspapers from the past few weeks. If you read them with a discerning eye, you will see exactly what I mean.
For whichever direction one chooses to look, be it north, south or east of us, trouble – major trouble – is brewing.
Patience Wheatcroft in the Telegraph, Sun, Oct 22nd: “The Government has a secret weapon: Islamic podcasts” (via Right Truth)
The Government is right to be seeking ways of countering the fiery propaganda of the radical Islamists who have found such a receptive audience in Britain. The most obvious would have been to have arrested them rather than handing over generous state benefits to enable them to continue their efforts. Instead, Abu Hamza was able to build up a property investment business on the foundations of our national cowardice.
Only now that the dire results of that cowardice are apparent in the number of plots fomenting in our midst have ministers decided to sound a bit braver. Querying the desirability of the niqab was a start. Supporting the view that a teacher cannot do the job properly if fully veiled is nothing more than common sense, but just weeks ago, a craven administration might not have judged it politically correct to say so.
Aishah Azmi may be more interested in her modesty than the aims of al-Qaeda but the tone of in which she denounced her critics suggests that it will need more than a podcast or two to counter the propaganda of the fundamentalist clerics.
Diana West in the Washington Times, Oct 20: “A vote for civil war”
Even as we pursue “security,” “stabilizing” the Shi’ite-dominated, Shariah-guided Iraqi government—and, thus, creating a natural Iranian (Shi’ite) ally — makes zero strategic sense. But, see here, say supporters of the president’s Iraq policy: If we don’t secure and stabilize the Shi’ite-dominated, Shariah-guided government in Iraq, that same government falls, America suffers defeat in jihadist eyes, and Shi’ite-Sunni war breaks out in full force.
Well, which scenario is better for the U.S. of A? I vote for civil war. It seems obvious when Shi’ite and Sunni jihadis — and their Islamic world sponsors — are busy slaughtering one another, they have much less time to plan their next attack on Americans, in the region or stateside. This isn’t to say there’s no role for American forces in the Middle East. But that role may be, as a Marine captain home from Afghanistan and Iraq put it to me, far from booby-trapped Iraqi cities, perhaps in Kurdistan, where they can keep a lid on Iraq while preparing for the next stage of the war on jihad, against Iran and Syria — assuming there is a next stage.
Such a redeployment is no defeat. But it would represent a drastic change in war aims and in the Bush belief in the magical properties of Western-style liberty for truly all. The fact is, democratizing Islamic cultures into secular wonders of ecumenical productivity just ain’t going to happen. The sooner we acknowledge this, the better for us. And above all, this war should be, as they say in our therapeutic culture, all about us.
Aslam Abdullah in the Jerusalem Post, Oct 21: “We’re Muslim-Americans – kill us, too”
The leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, recently issued a decree to its supporters: Kill at least one American in the next two weeks “using a sniper rifle, explosive or whatever the battle may require.”
Well, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, I am an American too. Count me as the one of those you have asked your supporters to kill.
I am not alone. There are thousands of Muslims with me in Las Vegas, and many more millions in America, who are proud Americans and who are ready to face your challenge. You hide in your caves and behind the faces of civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq. You don’t show your faces and you have no guts to face Muslims. You thrive on the misery of thousands of Muslim youth and children who are victims of despotism, poverty and ignorance.
During the past two decades, you have brought nothing but shame and disaster to your religion and your world.
You said “not to drop your weapons,” not to let “your enemies rest until each one of you kills at least one American within a period that does not exceed 15 days.”
But I invite you to surrender, to seek forgiveness from God almighty for the senseless killing you and your supporters are involved in and repent for everything you have done.
John Lloyd in the Financial Times, Oct 20 (subscription only) “Growing gulf sets young Muslims at odds with society “
A profoundly unsettling movement is sweeping through the universities, colleges and even schools of the Muslim communities of Europe. There, a minority of young Muslims, mainly men, have embraced a form of faith-cum-militancy which puts them at odds both with their fellow citizens and their (usually older) co-religionists. Whichever group promulgates the radical nostrums they ingest – Hizb ut-Tahrir, which Tony Blair, UK prime minister, had proposed banning, before drawing back, is among the most active in calling for a global caliphate enforcing Sharia law – the result is to produce a cohort within which a significant number views the replete and largely godless societies of Europe with scorn.
They hate Marxism, but owe much to it. Writing in the New Statesman, Shiv Malik, who attended Hizb seminars, reported on gatherings of enthused, driven radicals of the kind who fuelled far left movements 20 years ago. He quotes a Hizb member, Hassan Mujtaba, as saying that “as a political party we wouldn’t engage in action that would divert us from our main aim, which is the establishment of the caliphate. We wouldn’t go around building a school or a mosque or setting up a drugs project. We would collate information, really closely observe what is going on in British society and then provide a template that would assist those people to go and establish an Islamic community.” As Ariel Cohen, a researcher at the US Heritage Foundation, writes: “This ideology poses a direct challenge to the western model of a secular, market-driven, tolerant, multicultural globalisation.”
Ayaan Hirsi Ali in the LA Times, Oct 22: “Europe’s Immigration Quagmire”
The continent needs more realistic policies that recognize both immigration’s economic benefit and the dangers of Islamism.
IN AFRICA, we sometimes used animals to say things on sensitive issues to avoid discussing the messenger instead of the message. So I shall use the ostrich and the owl to sketch the two most important positions on immigration and pluralism in Europe.
[..]
In a worst-case scenario, the warnings of the owl will not be heeded. The optimism of the ostrich will be abandoned. The monopoly of force that is now exclusive to states will be challenged by armed subgroups. European societies will be divided along ethnic and religious lines. The education system will not succeed in grooming the youth to believe in a shared past, let alone a shared future.
The European states will find themselves limiting civil liberties. Europeans will come to accept the de facto implementation of Sharia law in certain neighborhoods and even cities. The exploitation of the weak, women and children will be commonplace. Those who can afford to emigrate will do so.
Instead of an ever-growing union in Europe, future generations may witness an ever-disintegrating one.
In a best-case scenario, Europeans will heed the caution of the owl without losing the liveliness of the ostrich. This approach will be translated into a three-dimensional, comprehensive policy.
First, controlled or planned immigration. [..]
Second, an intervention, sometimes proactive, in Europe’s neighboring states or in failed states with conditions that force people to migrate in large numbers. [..]
Finally, in a best-case scenario, the EU will implement an assimilation program guided by the lessons learned from our failed attempts at multiculturalism. [..]
Mark Steyn in the Chicago Sun-Times, Oct 22: “Fear of too many babies is hard to bear “
Last Tuesday morning, in a maternity ward somewhere in the United States, the 300 millionth American arrived. He or she got a marginally warmer welcome than Mark Foley turning up to hand out the prizes at junior high. One could have predicted the appalled editorials from European newspapers aghast at yet another addition to the swollen cohort of excess Americans consuming ever more of the planet’s dwindling resources. And, when Canada’s National Post announced “‘Frightening’ Surge Brings US To 300m People,” you can appreciate their terror: the millions of Democrats who declared they were moving north after Bush’s re-election must have placed incredible strain on Canada’s highways, schools, trauma counselors, etc.
[..]I, on the other hand, was feeling pretty chipper about the birth of the cute l’il quality-of-life degrader. The previous day, my new book was published. You’ll find it in all good bookstores — it’s propping up the slightly wonky rear left leg of the front table groaning under the weight of unsold copies of Peace Mom by Cindy Sheehan. Anyway, the book — mine, not Cindy’s — deals in part with the geopolitical implications of demography — i.e., birth rates. That’s an easy subject to get all dry and statistical about, so I gotta hand it to my publicist: arranging for the birth of the 300 millionth American is about as good a promotional tie-in as you could get and well worth the 75 bucks he bribed the guy at the Census Bureau. But, even if you haven’t got a book to plug, the arrival of Junior 300 Mil is something everyone should celebrate.
Praveen Swami in The Hindu, Oct 23: “The search for the puppet-masters”
EVEN AS Pakistan’s armed forces massed the formations that would spearhead the Kargil war, the Lashkar-e-Taiba’s overall military commander proclaimed the opening of a second front. “To set up mujahideen networks across India is our one target,” Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi told The Nation on April 9, 1999. “We are preparing the Muslims of India,” he said, “and when they are ready, it will be the start of the disintegration of India.”
Six years after Lakhvi delivered this open threat, India is finally waking up to its seriousness. While a mass of evidence has emerged on the Lashkar role in the July 11 Mumbai serial bombings, Indian investigators continue to search for clear answers to the two most important questions. Just what strategic purpose was the bombing intended to serve? And is the regime of President Pervez Musharraf an enemy of the Lashkar’s jihad — or, in fact, its author?
[..]After 1989, and the Islamist triumph in Afghanistan, the Lashkar’s energies turned eastwards. From the outset, its objectives were clear. The Lashkar’s strategic goal, the scholar Yoginder Sikand has observed, was “to extend Muslim control over what is seen as having once been Muslim land, and, hence, to be brought back under Muslim domination.”
Robert D. Kaplan in the Atlantic, Oct 22: “We Can’t Just Withdraw”
Iraq may be closer to an explosion of genocide than we know.
Because no one is able to monopolize the use of force among either the Sunnis or Shiites, within each community various groups are in fierce competition over who can best defend it, which translates into who can murder more members of the other community. Even formal groupings like Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim’s Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army are aggregations of many smaller factions and death squads, whom their leaders don’t always control. Only when the political struggle within each sectarian community calms down can the civil war itself be ameliorated. Right now, there is no one on any side with the pivotal power to negotiate with the other.
An emerging school of thought says that the only real leverage we’re going to have is the threat of withdrawal, which would concentrate the minds of the various groups to seek modalities with each other for governing the country. That’s a bet, not a plan. You could also bet that any timetable for withdrawal will lead to a meltdown of the Iraq Army according to region and sect. Even if we promise that all of our military advisors will stay put, in addition to our air and special operations assets, no one in a culture of rumor and conspiracy theory might believe us.